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Opinion polls

Last update: Wednesday 27 May 2009

The pollsters

Australia has four main polling companies that are used by organisations to conduct polls. Each makes claims of success in calling the actual election results.

ACNielsen - au.acnielsen.com
Polls appear in the Fairfax newspapers.
 
Galaxy - www.galaxyresearch.com.au
Used by many of News Ltds metro newspapers.
 
Newspoll - www.newspoll.com.au
Polls appear mainly in The Australian newspaper.
 
Roy Morgan - www.roymorgan.com.au
Home of the Morgan Poll.
 

How to report an opinion poll

All major opinion polls usually report results with an error margin of +/3% which must be noted before making any claim to a rise or fall in popularity of a particular party, candidate of point of view.

That means that if one opinion poll says Party A has 47% support and the next poll records a 49% support you cannot say that support for Party A is growing. The two results are within the +/-3% error margin so it is entirely possible Party A's support has remained the same.

Be very careful when reporting any claim of a rise or fall in support when results are within this margin of error. All credible polls should report the number of people polled, the method of polling (phone or face to face etc.) and they should report a margin of error.

Another pitfall is when using polls from different polling companies and you try to compare the results, when the questions asked by pollsters are very different.

If in doubt then check with the individual polling company for its take on the latest opinion poll results - use their words and not yours.

Be extra careful when reporting any claim of a rise or fall in support for a political party, especially when the rising claim comes from the actual party concerned and the falling claim refers to the party's opponents.

The Australian Press Council has a list of Reporting Guidelines for journalists reporting on opinion polls.

Opinion poll watchers

Whenever a new poll is announced an army of poll watchers will pounce on both the poll results and the media's analysis of the poll. They're a dedicated bunch of number crunchers who can be both insightful and critical of any coverage.

Why do they do it?

"So budding political journos reporting on polls and politics generally, for really the first time ever in Australia, have to have their act together - they can't wing it anymore without suffering the consequences," says one poll watcher.

So be warned, and be careful what you say when reporting on opinion polls.

Mumble - www.mumble.com.au
Part of the PhD work of Peter Brent at ANU. Says his preoccupation with voting behaviour comes from: "A brain wired towards mathematics, a strong interest in politics; and a sullen disposition to ponder human behaviour."
 
Oz Politics Blog - www.ozpolitics.info/blog/
The work of Bryan Palmer, from Canberra, and includes an excellent guide.
 
The Poll Bludger - www.pollbludger.com
The work of William Bowe, a PhD student at the University of WA, and described as one of Australia's most widely read political websites.
 
Possums Pollytics - blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/
Prefers to remain anonymous.
 
Psephos - psephos.adam-carr.net
Adam Carr's election archive of election results and statistics from 175 countries, including Australia.
 
Simon Jackman - jackman.stanford.edu/blog/
Born and raised in Brisbane but now a professor of politics in the US but retains a strong interest in Australian politics and elections.
 

 

 

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